One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. This number is an estimate and is based on several different factors, including information on the number of votes cast early as well as information provided to our vote reporters on Election Day from county election officials. FOX 5's Alex Whittler did some digging to find out how you can avoid long wait times throughout the week. Walker, who has been met with a string of scandals and controversies throughout his campaign, has a 52 percent unfavorable rating, up four points from the previous Monmouth poll. At that time, some high-population areas, including heavily Democratic Fulton and Dekalb Counties, still had large chunks of the vote left to be counted. While voters at some polling sites faced lengthy waits in line, state election officials reported that average wait times were brief, with most people waiting just a few minutes to cast their ballots. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. . If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. 51 49. . In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Democrats have outspent Republicans in the runoff campaign. More than half of the voters in his own . Janet Mills of Maine. The fact that fucking Herschel Walker is leading Raphael Warnock is the most frustrating thing I've read today. The poll found that Warnock is more favored by independents with 52 percent of their support compared to Walker's 48 percent. , Marc Molinaro, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks 19th Congressional District. 15%. . , Brandon Williams, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks 22nd Congressional District. Tuesday's ballots will be added to the nearly 1.9 million early and absentee votes that have already been cast. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), also in September, in Atlanta, Georgia. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. By 9 p.m., the polls will have closed in a majority of states. "We're going to win Georgia.". But in the November midterm elections last month, state officials from Missouri and Florida said they would block federal officers from entering polling sites. Among independent likely voters, if the election were held today, 61%. , Gov. In Ariz., Mont., Neb. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. Claims about Walker kept coming in the runoff campaign: Last week,The Daily Beast reportedallegations by Cheryl Parsa, an ex-girlfriend of Walker's, accusing the Senate candidate of violent behavior and infidelity. "The embarrassment is just going to keep growing over this," Laura Harth, the campaign director at Safeguard Defenders, told Newsweek. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Read more Herschel Walker and Sen. Raphael Warnock are in a tight Georgia Senate race ahead of their debate, a pair of new polls showed. Warnock also benefits from women under 55 years old while. A new poll shows why the U.S. Senate race in Georgia between Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is so close. The senator enjoyed 51 percent support to the Republican's 49 percenta two-point marginwhile 4. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who have held up passage of some of Biden's signature bills in his first two years in office. Elsewhere, Warnock has a 43 percent unfavorable rating among potential Georgia voters, and a net positive rating of 51 percent. Democrats remain favored to win the Senate in the November midterm elections, but the outcome could be decided in tight races like the one unfolding in Georgia and if the polls are close, the contest between Walker and Warnock could prove crucial for both parties. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. Poll Results Next Do you support spending tax dollars for pandemic preparedness? A new Emerson College Polling/ The Hill poll of Georgia finds U.S. Mandela Barnes, delivering a critical victory for Republicans. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Maggie Astor John Duarte, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Californias 13th Congressional District. In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. , In Nevadas race for governor, Joe Lombardo, a Trump-backed sheriff, beat Gov. Nov . Circle size is proportional to the amount each countys leading https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-georgia-us-senate.html. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. "I feel Herschel Walker benefited by having Brian Kemp in the original election on Nov. 8, and I think Kemp not being there will hurt the Republicans a little bit," said Alpharetta resident Marcelo Salvatierra, who voted for Republican Kemp and Democrat Warnock and still supports the senator in the runoff. He needs to get enough voters to overlook their misgivings about him to come over to his support or benefit from a turnout disparity among the two parties' base voters. ATLANTA Herschel Walker's embattled campaign is far behind Sen. Raphael Warnock with a little more than a month until the November midterms, a new 11Alive poll indicates . RealClearPolitics - Election 2022 - Georgia Senate - Walker vs. Warnock Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. While Walker did not post anything original, his campaign retweeted several supportive messages from other Republicans, including Georgia Gov. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images), Alex Wong | Getty Images News | Getty Images, NORCROSS, GEORGIA - DECEMBER 06: Georgia Democratic Senate candidate U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) speaks to supporters during a pre-canvassing event December 6, 2022 in Norcross, Georgia. Democratic advertisers dominated Georgia's airwaves in the run-up to the runoff, outspending Republican advertisers by more than a 2-to-1 margin, according to data from AdImpact. ET, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said. . J.D. The DOJ's notice about its activities in the Georgia runoff included a link to a webpage where people can report possible violations of voting rights laws. GOP starts boosting Walker in runoff amid calls to keep Trump away from Georgia, Maricopa County officials apologize for Arizona ballot reader issue, New Hampshires James Roesener is first trans man elected to a state legislature, Here are the Black candidates who made history on election night, Biden speaks with McCarthy as House control remains too early to call, So much relief: South Dakota voters pass Medicaid expansion, Counting in Nevada's Clark County continues after 56,900 mail ballots were received on Election Day, Eric Sorensen becomes first LGBTQ person elected to Congress from Illinois, Latino Republican voters are more progressive than white Republican voters on key issues, exit polls find, Alaska Senate race headed to ranked choice runoff, Schumer says Democrats are 'feeling good' about keeping majority after pundits 'missed it', Abortion rights advocates see a flurry of post-Roe victories in midterms. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. A separate national poll average complied by. Georgia's previous one-day record for early voting was about 233,000 votes, according to Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer for the Georgia Secretary of State. Alicia Parlapiano Follow along after polls close. A new poll gives an indication about why the Georgia Senate race is so close. A spokesman for the MAGA Inc. PAC did not return a request for comment. Vance, a Republican and the Hillbilly Elegy author, is very likely to win Ohios Senate race, according to our estimates. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. While Warnock got more votes than Walker, third-party candidate Chase Oliver, a Libertarian, secured just over 2% of the vote, keeping either of the two main contenders from clinching a majority, according to NBC News' count. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. See the full forecast . April 25, 2023. Walker and Warnock have been contacted for comment. , Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. ET poll-closing time, and with 49% of the expected vote in, Warnock appeared to be leading Walker, 53.4% to 46.6%, according to NBC's count of the race. , George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. In Virginia, the performances of Democratic incumbents in the 2nd and 7th districts may offer early indications of how the party will fare in House races overall. The DOJ has been monitoring elections as a standard practice for decades to confirm compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965. You have put in the hard work, and here we are standing together.". Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is pulling ahead of his Republican rival Herschel Walker in the Senate race in Georgia, albeit narrowly, according to an Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey release The Associated Press has not yet called the race. . . The high-profile election has been marked by dead-even polling, heavy spending and a cascade of personal scandals that have spilled into the runoff period. At this point, the latter option looks like his better bet," Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. We want to hear from you. The poll found Warnock leading Walker 49 percent to 47 percent among very likely voters, with another 2 percent undecided. Tonight: follow live results and our forecast from Georgia as the final Senate seat in the 2022 midterm elections is decided. , Mike Lawler, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks 17th Congressional District. When broken down further, the results are more even for those taking part in the survey who said they are "extremely motivated" to vote in November, around one in six. Earlier in the campaign, Walker had acknowledgedfathering multiple other childrenwho were not previously known to be related to him. More than 353,000 voters cast ballots in person on that day, state data show, crushing records set earlier in the week. Voters line up at Metropolitan Library to cast their ballots in the runoff election for the Senate position, between Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock and Republican candidate Herschel Walker, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., November 29, 2022. much-better-than-expected midterm elections, paid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion years earlier, won his seat in a runoff nearly two years ago. Maggie Astor Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. These maps show the leading candidates margins in the reported vote and estimates for which candidate leads in the remaining votes that we expect from each county. Democratic advertisers spent $57.2 million in the runoff period, versus $27.3 million from GOP advertisers. Lazaro Gamio That leaves Warnock's party trailing the GOP, which enjoyed a 53 percent favorable view and a 47 percent unfavorable rating. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. , Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Following an emergency hearing, the Henry County Superior Court granted the extension. But total early-voter turnout was still down from the prior Senate runoff in Georgia, data show. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Of the other previous seven polls, Walker has led in the most recent three, Warnock in another three and the seventh a draw between the pair. Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. , Brad Raffensperger, Republican, is re-elected as Georgias secretary of state. 2023 FOX Television Stations. A super PAC backed by former President Donald Trump has not invested a single cent into the Georgia Senate runoff, as incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock outspends Republican candidate Herschel Walker in the $84 million race. The Senate bid has also raised questions about Walker's mental health, andaccusations by Walker's ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, resurfaced that he had been abusive and threatening toward her. Georgia's other Senate seat went to Democrat Jon Ossoff over Republican David Perdue in a separate runoff that same day. Takeaways. The poll. More than 1.33 million votes had been cast on the day of the Senate runoff in Georgia as of 6 p.m. Salvatierra said he backed Kemps re-election "because it seems to me Georgia has done well." Senator Rev. By clicking Sign Up, I confirmthat I have read and agreeto the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. Nov. 8, 2022, Results will begin coming in at 6 p.m. Eastern as the first polls close in Indiana and Kentucky, but the pace will really pick up with a slew of closings at 7 and 8. Heisman Trophy winner and Republican candidate for US Senate Herschel Walker speaks at a rally on May 23, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. candidate is ahead. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. Tony Evers won a second term as governor of Wisconsin, giving Democrats a foothold in a critical presidential battleground. 2023 CNBC LLC. In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. Georgia Republican candidate Herschel Walker holds a thin, 2-point lead in his race against incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) for a seat in the upper chamber, according to a poll released Tues Republican Senate hopeful Herschel Walker has conceded the runoff election in Georgia to Sen. Raphael Warnock, after networks, including NBC, called the race for Warnock. These ballots, which in 2020 favored Trump, were not enough to tilt the election in favor of the Republican candidate Kari Lake. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. About 1.87 million early votes were cast in the runoff between Warnock and Walker, down from the 3.1 million votes cast in Georgia ahead of last year's runoffs. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. NYT Graphics Lazaro Gamio John Fetterman defeated the celebrity TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping Pennsylvanias Senate seat to the Democrats. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images), Win Mcnamee | Getty Images News | Getty Images, ATLANTA, GEORGIA - DECEMBER 06: Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker delivers his concession speech as his wife Julie Blanchard and former football player Doug Flutie look on during an election night event at the College Football Hall of Fame on December 6, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. Party-issue groups' spending also flipped between the Georgia general midterm election and the runoff, according to AdImpact: GOP groups made up more than 58% of ad spending for the state's general election, but just 35% of ad spending in the runoff. Georgia Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock maintains a slight lead over his Republican challenger Herschel Walker in what remains one of the closest midterm races, according to a poll. That could be because voters in the current runoff election had fewer days to cast their ballots about one week, compared with the nearly three weeks offered in the prior cycle. Nov. 8, 2022, Kentucky, a solidly red state, reelected Rand Paul to the Senate. Compared to Kemps reported votes, Walkers fell short in every county, but especially in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. But his Senate bid has been weighed down by a stream of gaffes and major scandals about his personal life. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. The Georgia race went to a runoff after neither Warnock nor Walker won more than 50% of the vote in the November general election. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. ATHENS, Ga Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker barnstormed Georgia in a final plea for votes amid signs of growing momentum for the Democratic incumbent and fading GOP. Alicia Parlapiano Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. Nov. 9, 2022, The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week. Nate Cohn Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. Maggie Astor Warnock led Walker by about 37,000 votes out of about 4 million cast in the general election but fell short of the majority required under Georgia law, triggering a four-week runoff blitz. Of the one in four potential voters who have already voted in the Georgia Senate race, 61 percent say they support Warnock, with Walker way behind on 34 percent. ET. The Monmouth University poll was conducted from September 15 to 19 among 601 Georgia registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. According to FiveThirtyEight's national poll average, Warnock and Walker are tied on 46.4 percent with just four days until the polls open. With more than two-thirds of the vote in, the Senate runoff election in Georgia between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker was still too close to call, NBC News projected. Cisco Aguilar, a Democratic lawyer, defeated Jim Marchant, a leading promoter of election conspiracy theories, in the race to be Nevadas secretary of state. Democrats scored upset victories there in the 2020 presidential election and in two U.S. Senate elections in January, 2021, when Warnock pulled off a surprise over Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler in the special election. "We are down to a wait time of minute and 25 seconds," Sterling tweeted around 9:30 a.m. ATLANTA, GEORGIA - DECEMBER 06: Georgia Democratic Senate candidate U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) speaks during an election night watch party at the Marriott Marquis on December 6, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. . , Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada won a second term, beating Adam Laxalt, a Trump acolyte, and dealing a blow to Republicans. No. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Lazaro Gamio Walker's personal life had already been under scrutiny before those allegations came to light. Walker's campaign sought to present him as a world-class athlete, a successful businessman, a faithful Christian and an inspirational figure who overcame adversity. Heres where we think votes remain. Walker looks set to be the latest Donald Trump-endorsed . race to be Georgia's next senator is deadlocked. "After a hard-fought campaign, or should I say campaigns, it is my honor to utter the four most powerful words ever spoken in a democracy," Warnock said. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. A CNN/SSRS poll released Friday found that Warnock holds a four-point lead over Walker among likely voters, 52% to 48%. "TeamHerschel.com/VOTE," read part of Ye's post on Instagram, a Meta-owned social media platform that had restricted his account multiple times in recent months. The new survey from FrederickPolls, COMPETE Digital and AMMPolitical shows both Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Challenge Herschel Walker tied at 50 percent each ahead of the Dec. 6 runoff. Andrew Fischer Nate Cohn It could have been narrowed further, but the Warnock campaignwon a state lawsuitto allow early voting on the weekend after Thanksgiving. Vance in the returns, but almost all of the results are early votes, which we expect to disproportionately favor Democrats. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. The senator enjoyed 51 percent support to the Republican's 49 percenta two-point marginwhile 4. According to the poll, 97 percent of likely voters in the Peach State say they were "definitely voting" for their choice, essentially locking themselves for their candidate. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. The most recent poll included in FiveThirtyEight's analysis is from YouGov and was carried out from September 14 to 19. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. ATLANTA - With early voting reaching record numbers, a new poll says that the race to be Georgia's next senator is deadlocked. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. Warnock's campaign had almost three times as much cash on hand as Walker's in the runup to Georgia's runoff election. Trump was already under fire from some Republicans after many of his handpicked candidates underperformed in key midterm races, helping Democrats keep majority control of the upper chamber of Congress. Nearly seven in 10 Americans believe their country is on a "wrong track.". Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Yes. For months, hes said Walker, a former football star making his first bid for public office, was "not ready" for the Senate. "Both of the poll workers are okay, they turned down medical attention to go to the hospital but they were able to retrieve that vote card" and turned it over to the county authorities on time, he said. Michiganders are voting on abortion rights. Four in ten of respondents questioned in the Monmouth poll, which was conducted Oct. 20-24, said they would definitely not vote for Warnock, with 46% saying the same thing about Walker.And the . , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. "The fever has broken," Gabriel Sterling, chief operating officer of the secretary of state's office, said on CNN. Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. What we expect this year The poll found that Warnock is more favored by independents with 52 percent of their support compared to Walker's 48 percent. Polls across the rest of the state closed at 7 P.M. DeSantis outperformed Trump in Florida in every county that has nearly finished counting votes. And Georgia, you have been praying with your lips and your legs, with your hands and your feet, your heads and your hearts. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) holds a narrow 2 percentage point lead over Republican rival Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff, according to a new survey from Emerson College Polling and . , Eric Sorensen, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Illinoiss 17th Congressional District. However, Warnock has beaten Walker in the past three polls outright, including a SurveyUSA poll that gave the Democrat a 12-point lead over his Republican rival. But now, Warnock's race is expected to deliver a final verdict on whether Georgia, a former Republican stronghold that former President Donald Trump won by 5 points, is really a swing state. Republicans circled the wagons around the ex-NFL star after The Daily Beast and other news outlets reported that Walker, who expressed staunchly anti-abortion views on the campaign trail, hadpaid for an ex-girlfriend's abortion years earlier. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. The pro-Trump PAC Make America Great Again Inc. was launched in the buildup to Trump's Nov. 15 announcement of his 2024 run for president. The NAACP's Office of General Counsel won an emergency lawsuit to extend voting hours in a Georgia church in McDonough, located in Henry County. The unknown question is to what extent Republican enthusiasm on Election Day is able to overcome the Democratic advantage in early voting," said Murray. Nov. 14, 2022, Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. Christine Zhang Maggie Astor Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. That puts pressure on both Warnock and Walker to convince Georgia voters that its worth their time to cast a second ballot, even if the national stakes arent as high. The hotly contested Senate contest in Georgia will advance to a runoff between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker on December 6, CNN projects. Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. Nov. 9, 2022, House districts rated as tossups have been called mostly in favor of Democrats so far, with one state as a glaring exception: New York.